ACEG
Climate Action & Global Ecosystems
ACEG is a non‑profit association dedicated to strengthening climate governance through applied research, technical analysis, and strategic support to public institutions. Our work focuses on generating clear, useful, and evidence‑based knowledge to improve decision‑making in the face of the climate crisis.
About
The Association ACEG is a growing organization, we operate with high standards of rigor, transparency, and public responsibility. ACEG brings together science, policy, and economics to support national and subnational governments in designing and implementing climate strategies that are effective, equitable, and aligned with ecological limits.
Lines of Action
NDCs and climate planning: technical analysis, policy coherence, identification of mitigation and adaptation measures, and support for updating and monitoring processes.
Environmental politics and economics: studies on governance, equity, resilience, regulatory frameworks, and economic transformation under ecological pressure.
Climate finance and green funds: institutional readiness, requirements analysis, mapping of financing sources, and support in designing projects aligned with international standards.
What We Offer to National and Local Governments, Civil Society Organizations, and Communities
Applied research and technical analysis
Policy briefs, institutional assessments, and evidence syntheses
Technical assistance for national and local governments
Tools, guides, and methodologies for climate management
Our Approach
Technical rigor in methods and analysis
Independence and commitment to the public interest
Accessibility in communicating evidence
Collaboration with public institutions, academia, and civil society
Transparency in processes and results
ACEG advances step by step, building a solid foundation to become a national and international reference in climate governance and strategic analysis for climate action.
Our Themes
ACEG’s work is organized around four interconnected themes that reflect the complexity of climate governance. Each theme highlights a critical dimension of the global response to climate change and guides our applied research, technical analysis, and strategic support.
Theme 1: Advancing Climate Effectiveness and Governance
Helping governments design, strengthen, and implement their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
We provide science-based support to close gaps in technical capacity, data systems, finance access, and governance alignment, ensuring that national commitments are implementable, transparent, and coherent across all levels of government.
Theme 2: Environmental Politics and Economics
Exploring how climate change reshapes authority, justice, and prosperity.
Our work clarifies the political, social, and economic dynamics that determine why climate action succeeds in some contexts and stalls in others, enabling strategies that are effective, legitimate, and resilient.
Theme 3: Climate Finance — Aligning Global Financial Flows with a 1.5°C Future
Finance is the hinge of transformation.
ACEG analyzes pathways to scale climate-aligned flows from billions to trillions, emphasizing integrity, justice, and innovation. We support governments and institutions in accessing equitable, debt-sensitive, and transparent financing for climate action.
Theme 4: Futuring Scenarios for Climate Action
Embracing uncertainty as a resource for creativity and resilience.
Through scenario-building at global, regional, urban, and sectoral levels, we help policymakers, businesses, and communities anticipate tradeoffs, design resilient interventions, and co-create futures that are equitable, sustainable, and adaptive.
Connecting the Themes
Together, these four themes form ACEG’s framework for accelerating effective climate action. By integrating governance, politics, finance, and foresight, we help translate ambition into strategies that are implementable, equitable, and aligned with ecological realities.
Theme A. Advancing Climate Effectiveness and Governance
A. Advancing Climate Effectiveness and Governance
ACEG is dedicated to accelerating effective climate action by supporting governments at all levels—national, sectoral, regional, and municipal—in the design, strengthening, and implementation of their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
We combine scientific rigor, public policy expertise, and a deep understanding of international climate governance to help translate ambition into implementable, finance-ready, and transparent climate strategies. Our work is grounded in the principles of the Paris Agreement: progression, the highest possible level of ambition, equity, and inclusive, multilevel participation.
Why Our Work Matters
NDCs are designed to reflect a country’s collective climate ambition. Their formulation and implementation involve a wide range of actors: national ministries, sectoral agencies, regional governments, municipalities, civil society, and the private sector. Each plays a distinct and indispensable role.
Line ministries provide strategic direction, set targets, coordinate across sectors, and represent the country before the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
Local governments shape the everyday systems—land use, transport, waste, water, risk management, and local development—that determine whether national climate commitments can be fulfilled.
In practice, however, many subnational governments face challenges that limit their ability to fully contribute to the implementation of NDCs, including:
Limited technical capacity to interpret and operationalize NDC commitments.
Weak alignment between local development plans and national climate priorities.
Insufficient data systems to monitor progress—such as Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventory systems and Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) systems, which form the technical foundation of the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF).
Difficulty accessing climate finance due to institutional readiness gaps.
Fragmented governance and unclear mandates for climate action.
ACEG helps close these gaps through applied research, rigorous analysis, review of reports, and case study assessments, enabling the strengthening of NDCs so they become more transparent, coherent, feasible to implement, and aligned with the realities of national leadership and subnational action.
Theme B. Environmental Politics and Economics
B. Environmental Politics and Economics
Why This Field Matters Now
Climate change is reshaping the foundations of political authority, social cohesion, and economic strategy. Environmental politics and economics help us understand why climate action succeeds in some contexts and stalls in others, revealing the deeper systems that shape decisions, distribute risks, and determine what futures are possible. As ecological limits become more visible, the rules of the game — from public policy to investment flows — are shifting in real time.
Politics: Governing Under Ecological Pressure
Political systems mediate how societies make decisions under uncertainty, conflict, and unequal vulnerability. Climate adaptation is not only a technical challenge but a governance one: it raises questions about legitimacy, accountability, and whose losses count. Different political models — decentralized, institutionally negotiated, or centralized — produce distinct pathways because they embed different norms of participation and authority. Understanding these dynamics is essential for designing climate strategies that are both effective and socially accepted.
Society: Justice, Identity, and Collective Resilience
Social systems shape how climate impacts are experienced and how communities respond. Concepts like “just sustainability” show that environmental progress without fairness undermines legitimacy and long‑term resilience. Culture, identity, and power relations influence whose knowledge is valued, who benefits from adaptation, and who bears the costs. Localized and community‑driven approaches can strengthen resilience, but they must be designed to avoid exclusion and ensure equitable access to resources and opportunities.
Economy: Rethinking Prosperity and Growth
Traditional economic models struggle to account for biophysical limits. Emerging perspectives argue for redefining prosperity around well‑being, capabilities, and sufficiency rather than material throughput. At the same time, structural reforms — clean energy deployment, compact urban design, nature‑based solutions, and green industrial policy — show that climate action can unlock innovation, competitiveness, and new forms of economic opportunity. Across these approaches, one insight is constant: economic systems must operate within ecological boundaries to remain viable.
Transformation: When Incremental Change Isn’t Enough
Many countries now face pressures that require transformational change — shifts in goals, institutions, and routines rather than small adjustments. Political transformation involves building legitimacy for long‑term, cross‑generational decisions. Economic transformation requires reorienting investment, correcting price signals, and embedding ecological accounting into fiscal and monetary governance. Social transformation demands fair transitions that protect livelihoods and expand capabilities. Together, these shifts define the emerging landscape of climate governance.
How ACEG Contributes
ACEG supports governments and institutions by producing applied research, rigorous analysis, and actionable insights into the political, social, and economic dimensions of climate governance. Our work helps clarify system dynamics, identify leverage points, and strengthen the design and implementation of climate strategies that are equitable, feasible, and aligned with ecological realities.
Theme C. Climate Finance: Aligning Global Financial Flows with a 1.5°C Future
C. Climate Finance: Aligning Global Financial Flows with a 1.5°C Future
Why Climate Finance Matters
Finance is the engine of climate action. Every dollar invested either locks us into fossil dependence or builds resilience for generations to come. To achieve the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal, global financial flows must shift decisively toward climate-compatible pathways.
The Scale of the Challenge
Current climate-related flows reached USD 1.3 trillion in 2023. Yet the IPCC estimates USD 5–7 trillion annually is needed to stay on track. Developed countries’ pledge of USD 100 billion per year remains unmet, and much of what has been delivered comes as loans — deepening debt risks for vulnerable economies.
Carbon Markets in Context
Market mechanisms under Article 6 can help mobilize private capital and deliver efficiency gains, but they are no substitute for scaled-up public finance. Integrity safeguards and equity provisions are essential to ensure these tools complement, rather than replace real climate investment.
Justice and Equity
Climate finance is not just about numbers. Nearly 60% of low-income countries face debt distress, while adaptation needs remain underfunded. Equitable access, concessional finance, and grant-based support are critical to ensure the most vulnerable are not left behind.
Policy Path Forward
Scale: Move from billions to trillions in climate-aligned flows.
Integrity: Strengthen transparency and methodologies to safeguard trust.
Justice: Prioritize vulnerable economies with grants and concessional finance.
Innovation: Unlock private capital through clear rules and credible markets.
Key Message
Climate finance is the hinge of transformation. Aligning flows with a 1.5°C future requires systemic reform, trillions in investment, and a commitment to justice at the core of every financial decision.
Theme D. Futuring Scenarios for Climate Action
D. Futuring Scenarios for Climate Action
Embracing Uncertainty as a Resource
Climate change is one of the most complex challenges of our time. Traditional forecasting often struggles to capture its interconnected drivers—ranging from greenhouse gas emissions and land‑use change to political decisions and social values. The futuring approach offers a different path: instead of treating uncertainty as a barrier, it embraces it as a resource for creativity, inclusiveness, and systemic analysis. By imagining multiple possible futures, societies can prepare for diverse trajectories and act purposefully in shaping them.
How Futuring Works
The futuring process begins with horizon scanning—mapping emerging trends and critical uncertainties. These uncertainties are then crossed to generate contrasting scenarios, each representing a different possible world. For climate change, one axis might explore global cooperation versus fragmentation, while another considers the pace of technological innovation. The intersection of these axes produces four divergent futures, each with its own opportunities and threats.
Futuring for Climate Action: From Global Pathways to Local Choices
Beyond Global Scenarios
While broad scenarios like Cooperation + Innovation or Fragmentation + Stagnation help us understand global trajectories, futuring becomes even more impactful when applied to specific contexts. Cities, industries, and communities face unique challenges and opportunities, and futuring allows them to explore tailored pathways for climate action.
Granular Applications
By identifying critical uncertainties at a local or sectoral level, futuring generates scenarios that highlight concrete interventions. Examples include:
Urban Centers and Technology Adoption
- Axis 1: Speed of adopting smart, low‑carbon technologies (rapid vs. slow).
- Axis 2: Financing mechanisms (carbon markets vs. loans/grants).
- Outcomes: A city rapidly decarbonizes through carbon trading; another struggles with debt burdens from loan‑financed infrastructure; a third achieves resilience through community‑owned energy cooperatives.
Sector‑Specific Transitions
- Axis 1: Pace of technological migration (fast vs. gradual).
- Axis 2: Policy support (strong vs. weak).
- Outcomes: The transport sector shifts quickly to electric mobility under strong policy incentives; agriculture lags due to weak support, creating food security risks; or industries innovate unevenly, widening inequality between regions.
Community‑Level Adaptation
- Axis 1: Degree of social cohesion (inclusive vs. polarized).
- Axis 2: Access to decentralized energy (broad vs. limited).
- Outcomes: Cohesive communities leverage shared solar grids; polarized societies see unequal access, reinforcing vulnerability.
Why This Matters
These granular scenarios make climate futures tangible and actionable. They help policymakers, businesses, and communities anticipate tradeoffs, design resilient interventions, and avoid lock‑in to fragile pathways. For instance:
- Investing in community‑owned renewable systems remains valuable across scenarios.
- Embedding social equity into financing mechanisms ensures resilience whether through carbon markets or loans.
- Accelerating sector‑specific transitions (like transport electrification or sustainable agriculture) reduces systemic risk.
From Vision to Action
Futuring at multiple scales — global, regional, urban, and sectoral — equips societies to act purposefully. It transforms climate change from an overwhelming global threat into a set of navigable possibilities, where diverse actors can co‑create futures that are equitable, sustainable, and resilient.
Insight A.1: Nationally Determined Contributions as Instruments of Credibility and Engines of Institutional Transformation
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement have evolved from diplomatic pledges into instruments that test and shape the credibility of national climate governance. This paper consolidates insights from climate governance scholarship to argue that NDCs are simultaneously diagnostic tools of institutional strength and catalysts of governance transformation. Credibility is determined by ambition, transparency, finance, and fairness, while institutional change is driven by processes of policy diffusion, isomorphism, and layering. Together, these dynamics reveal that NDCs are not merely symbolic commitments but central mechanisms through which states embed climate action into governance systems, mobilize resources, and build legitimacy. As the Global Stocktake intensifies pressure on countries, the ability to produce transparent, finance-ready, and socially legitimate NDCs will determine which nations emerge as credible leaders in climate governance.Insight A.2: Social‑Ecological Resilience of Systems: Towards
Sustainability
Social‑ecological resilience has become a cornerstone of sustainability science, offering a framework for understanding how coupled human‑environment systems absorb disturbances, adapt to changing conditions, and transform while maintaining essential functions. This paper explores resilience as a set of pillars for climate action and governance, focusing on biodiversity, reversibility, social action capacity, and ecological footprint. Drawing on structuration theory, resilience scholarship, and recent IPCC reports on climate change and cities, it develops a conceptual framework that emphasizes cross‑pillar synergies, mitigation linkages, and operationalization pathways. Case examples from Colombia, Peru, and Kenya illustrate how existing instruments can advance these pillars and how new approaches can strengthen them. The paper concludes that resilience is both an ecological and social property, requiring governance instruments, planning tools, and cultural shifts to embed these pillars into systemic design for sustainability, while harmonizing adaptation and mitigation within national climate strategies and NDC frameworks. Download PDF (English). Descargar PDF (Español)
Insight B.1: Political–Economic Systems, Transformation, and the Future of Sustainability – an introduction
Sustainability and adaptation are no longer peripheral concerns but central challenges for political, social, and economic systems. This paper examines how governance under uncertainty, justice as a structural condition, and economic reorientation toward ecological limits collectively drive transformational change. Drawing on ecological political theory, just sustainabilities, post‑growth economics, and reform agendas, this introductory insight highlights three converging influences: ecological realities that move thresholds into the present, equity as a prerequisite for legitimacy, and macroeconomic strategies judged against planetary boundaries. The synthesis demonstrates that durable climate action arises only when governance, justice, and economic design evolve in concert. The conclusion emphasizes that legitimacy, narrative, and fairness are as critical as technological and financial innovation in shaping credible pathways forward. By integrating frameworks such as planetary boundaries, polycentric governance, doughnut economics, and the capability approach, the paper contributes to debates on how societies can align ecological viability, social legitimacy, and economic resilience within finite planetary limit. Download PDF (English). Descargar PDF (Español)
Insight B.2: Drivers of Climate Instrument Adoption in Middle-Income Democracies: Comparative Insights from Colombia Peru, and Kenya (1995–2024)
This study investigates the determinants of climate instrument adoption in three middle-income democracies—Colombia, Peru, and Kenya—between 1995 and 2024. Using negative binomial regression models, it evaluates the relative influence of domestic resilience, economic and institutional variables, international commitments, and financial resources. Results reveal that external drivers—ratification of international agreements and climate finance—consistently predict instrument proliferation across all three countries. Domestic factors exert varied influence: resilience paradoxically reduces adoption in Colombia, disasters spur adoption in Kenya, and democracy significantly fosters adoption in Peru. These findings refine resilience and diffusion theories, highlight the enabling role of financial resources, and underscore the context-dependent nature of domestic drivers. Policy recommendations emphasize strengthening institutions, leveraging international commitments, integrating voluntary pledges into binding law, and securing predictable climate finance. Download PDF (English) or Descargar PDF (Español)
See: Annex C: Heatmap Matrix (Comparative Results of Negative Binomial Models). Download PDF (English). Descargar PDF (Español)
Insight C.1: Aligning Climate Finance with the Paris Agreement: Cooperative Approaches and the Transition from CDM to Article 6.4
This paper examines the evolution of climate finance under the UNFCCC, with particular attention to the transition from the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement. It situates climate finance within the theoretical frameworks of global public goods, distributive justice, and political economy, while aligning the analysis with the latest findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The discussion highlights persistent shortfalls in climate finance, the debt-heavy structure of current flows, and the challenges of mobilizing private capital. Cooperative approaches under Article 6 are assessed as both an opportunity and a risk, with implications for equity, integrity, and systemic transformation. The paper concludes with policy recommendations and a future research agenda. Download PDF (English). Descargar PDF (Español)
Insight C.2: Strengthening Carbon Asset Management and Cooperative Approaches in Latin America
Climate finance flows have increased in recent years – yet remain far below the levels required to achieve the 1.5°C pathway outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cooperative approaches -under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement- have emerged as a key mechanism to mobilize private finance and enhance efficiency, offering an opportunity for countries to trade internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs) and generate high‑quality credits through the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM). This paper examines the transition from the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to Article 6.4, highlighting the importance of robust standards and practices to safeguard environmental integrity and equity.
The analysis focuses on Latin America, where a second wave of compliance markets is emerging. Countries such as Mexico, Chile, and Colombia are advancing emissions trading systems (ETSs) alongside carbon taxes, creating opportunities to broaden sectoral coverage and accelerate technological transformation. Download PDF (English). Descargar PDF (Español)
Insight D.1: Critical Uncertainties and Transformational Adaptation –
This paper explores the role of futuring as a methodological framework for transformational adaptation in the face of profound uncertainty (adaptation in the broader, systemic sense). Rather than treating uncertainty as a limitation, futuring embraces it as a resource for creativity, inclusiveness, and systemic analysis. Through scenario development, participants construct multiple, divergent futures by crossing critical uncertainties, thereby enabling the design of interventions that remain resilient across diverse trajectories. The paper outlines the iterative process of futuring—from horizon scanning and clustering trends to constructing narratives—and demonstrates its application to climate change, where traditional forecasting often fails to capture complexity. By examining scenarios of cooperation versus fragmentation and innovation versus stagnation, the study highlights opportunities and threats that inform robust, equitable, and adaptive strategies. The group work diary illustrates the collaborative and pedagogical dimensions of futuring, showing how diverse perspectives enrich scenario development and cultivate the capacity to think critically about uncertainty. Ultimately, the paper argues that futuring transforms adaptation from reactive mitigation into proactive worldmaking, equipping societies to act purposefully in shaping multiple possible futures. Download PDF (English). Descargar PDF (Español)
→ Methodological Illustration: How will societies in 2050 experience daily life if climate action and sustainability are pursued—or neglected—at different speeds and scales Download PDF (English). Descargar PDF (Español)
Donate
ACEG is a nonprofit association dedicated to strengthening climate governance through applied research, technical analysis, and strategic support to public institutions. We generate clear, evidence-based knowledge to improve decision-making in the face of the climate crisis.
Your contribution helps us expand our work with governments, civil society, and communities to design climate strategies that are effective, equitable, and aligned with ecological limits.
Join us in advancing climate action in Peru and beyond.
Contributions support applied research, policy analysis, and technical assistance.
ACEG is registered in Peru as a nonprofit association (RUC: [insert your number]).
Donations are tax-deductible under Peruvian law.
Together, we can close the gap between ambition and action.